Forex News Trading | Currency Trading News
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Weekly Technical Commentary
Moving at a snail's pace but nevertheless the trend to generalised US dollar weakness is underway. Which currency will lead is unclear though for dollar/yen we continue to favour a series of cautious downside tests of key support between 87.00 and 1995's 85.00 (below which it spiked to a low...
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US Economic Indicators Preview
The FOMC minutes of 4 November are likely to confirm that the majority of committee members still consider it warranted to maintain the fed funds rate at exceptionally low levels for an extended period, given low resource utilisation rates, subdued inflation and stable inflation expectations. There will have been some...
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A Busy Week, but Little Top-Tier Data, as Markets Wind Down for US Thanksgiving
This week is relatively light of top-tier data, with the calendar instead dominated by US government supply and the upcoming Thanksgiving break. The US Treasury is scheduled to auction $118bn of Treasury notes as it continues to grapple with the financing requirement of a massive Federal deficit. The week sees...
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EURUSD: The 1.4782/1.4625 Levels Keep MT Bias Higher
Even though EUR put in a negative performance the past week following its failure at the 1.5014 level, its Nov 1609 high and its subsequent weakness, as long as its current setback maintains above the 1.4782 level, its MT rising trendline and its Nov 0309 low at 1.4625, we look...
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GBPUSD: Price Extension Envisaged
The pair followed through lower on its nearer term declines off the 1.6875 level on Friday decisively violating its short term trendline and taking out the 1.6514 level. This development continues to put GBPUSD under pressure with risk seen towards the 1.6260 level especially now that a bearish engulfing candle...
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EMU Economic Indicators Preview
As (short-term) interest rates remain on a very low level, funds are still being shifted into overnight deposits - at the expense of term deposits and other interest bearing components of M3. The decline in loans to the private sector will probably have continued; lending to non-financial corporations in particular...
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This Week's Market Outlook
The moves this week should convince anyone that had any doubt, that the correlation between equity markets and currencies remains alive and well. It was a rollercoaster, with EUR/USD oscillating between 1.4800 support and 1.5000 resistance for the better part of the week. The S&P 500 meanwhile continued to find...
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Weekly Market Wrap
In currency trading, the greenback has only benefitted from lower equities and generally supportive comments from a variety of sources, with the exception of some non-conciliatory rhetoric out of the Sino-American summit. Traders were fixated all week on an alleged defense of a binary option with a range of 1.48...
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Dovish MPC Minutes Adds to the Pressure on UK Yields
The pound has recorded a split performance this week. It fell against the low yielding currencies (Japanese yen, US dollar, euro and Swiss franc) and rose against the commodity currencies (Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars) and the Swedish krona. GBP/USD closed the week at $1.6519, pulling back from the...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
The leading economic index increased 0.3 percent in October and has risen for the past seven months. This implies modest growth will continue into next year. Yet, two elements of the gain dont quite look like the usual recovery. One, the pace of the improvement fell sharply from the one...
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The Weekly Bottom Line
The fourth quarter has gotten off to a slow start for the economy. Industrial production for October fell by 0.1% from September while housing starts fell by 10.6% over the same period. Given the strong growth in the industrial sector in the third quarter, the level of production in October...
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Weekly Focus: Squaring Positions
At 0.69% the 2-year US bond yield is only 5bp from the low point during the crisis reached a year ago. 3-Month t-bill rates are again trading around 0%. Mainly two factors are behind this development. First of all, investors and banks are most likely reducing risk towards year-end putting...
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Bernanke Sees Headwinds for US Recovery
EUR-USD was over 1.49 for most of the week, despite the fact that the majority of US indicators turned out weaker than expected, which, according to the pattern of the last few weeks, should in fact have had a dampening impact. In addition, Fed president Ben Bernanke revealed that he...
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Weekly Market Commentary
Stock indices should drift through to year-end, but not collapse. FX will continue to consolidate, as should most commodities, with a tendency for the Yen to strengthen slightly and for the US dollar to weaken medium term. Longer-dated Treasury yields will move lower as investors realise that ultra-low official target...
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Petitioning China
President Obama's trip to Asia is one part introduction, one part diplomatic dialogue and eight parts competitive economics. Whatever agreements are met with leaders of Japan, and South Korean or communiqués are issued from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (APEC) in Singapore, it is the visit to Beijing that matters....
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Weekly Technical Commentary
Subtle signs in a series of currencies that the trend to generalised US dollar weakness is about to step up a gear. Which currency will lead is unclear, though the Brazilian real and Australian dollar have so far, +33% this year. For dollar/yen we continue to favour a series of...
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Weekly Forex Signals: EUR/USD
Technical analysis shows us the euro may continue its uptrend against U.S. dollar as MACD show us a divergences. RSI is in an uptrend. Bollinger gives us a bullish signal by closing the candle above the middle line.
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BoE MPC Minutes to Stay on Message with Inflation Report, but Watch Out for the Risk of a Split Vote
The key focus in the UK will be the publication of the MPC's minutes of the November policy meeting. Although the tone will draw heavily from the points already made in last week's Inflation Report, the debate ahead of the minutes will centre on whether the decision to extend the...
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US Economic Indicators Preview
Energy prices rose markedly in October, which will have had a major impact on inflation data. Import prices rose 0.7% mom, and we expect producer prices to have gone up by 0.6% mom, and consumer prices by up to 0.3% mom in October, although average gasoline prices remained more or...
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IMM Positioning - Short Dollar Psitions Have Been Built Further
Short dollar positions have been built further in the wake of further improvement in market risk appetite and performing risky assets. Despite the failure of EUR/USD to break meaningfully above 1.50 long EUR positions have been extended albeit remaining well below the crowded levels seen in early October.
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